@muddyrc detailed the farm: Papertrade applies a haircut to winning profits plus a 2% win fee, so a 0.1% BTC move costs ~24.29% and a 1% move ~13.18%; @reach_abhinav (quoted by @abhayait) put a +0.1% BTC win at ~72% kept and liquidation at 1000x after a 0.052% move.
[1][2]← Narrative indexOct 11 – Oct 17 UTC Every claim links to the posts behind it01 02 03 04 05 06 07 8 posts on X 1 week
Narrative / Rank 21 / Week of Oct 11 – Oct 17
Papertrade's $PAPER week: a claimed $1.28M launch exploit, farming yields decaying from 100 to 36.7 tokens per $1 lost, and a 15-minute fill that sent one trader to the exit
Peak / day5tracked accounts
Peak dayThuOct 15 · busiest day in the panel
Rest of X / peak day63distinct accounts outside the panel
Cited claims74 dropped by automated checks
Market—no token attached
Attention
Who was talking, day by day
Tracked paneldistinct tracked accounts / day
Rest of Xdistinct other accounts / day
What happened
@muddyrc detailed the farm: Papertrade applies a haircut to winning profits plus a 2% win fee, so a 0.1% BTC move costs ~24.29% and a 1% move ~13.18%; @reach_abhinav (quoted by @abhayait) put a +0.1% BTC win at ~72% kept and liquidation at 1000x after a 0.052% move. @muddyrc stated $1,000 margin currently farms ~1,215 $PAPER at $0.001085 per token, roughly break-even at a $150M FDV, and that PAPER earned per dollar lost is falling fast day to day.
+ 5 more in the evidence register ↓Why it matters
16 tracked accounts and hundreds of other posters spent the week on a single HyperEVM perp DEX whose token only exists when traders lose — and the week's news was that the mechanism got tested in public: an unverified launch-day arbitrage, a documented decay in farm economics, and slow fills on the product itself.
Observed reaction
Constructive-to-skeptical, not euphoric. The mechanism gets credit for being clever (@aaakasei, @oodegen, @cyberspartanx pushing back on 'rug' talk), but the loudest tracked posts are about costs, queues and decay. @thenestintern floated a $1B FDV consensus on 10-14; @tinzeyxyz on 10-17 explicitly called 1M $PAPER at $1 a speculative target, not a position value.
Spread
Where it started and who carried it
- First seen
- Oct 11, 00:20 UTC by @thenestintern
- Accounts
- 16 tracked · 3 elsewhere on X
- Communities
- perps trading (6), general ct (3), prediction mkts (2), eth defi (2)
- Key accounts
- @jussy_world, @thenestintern, @kookcapitalllc, @whalecointalk, @muddyrc
Explainability
Evidence register
@muddyrc stated $1,000 margin currently farms ~1,215 $PAPER at $0.001085 per token, roughly break-even at a $150M FDV, and that PAPER earned per dollar lost is falling fast day to day.
[1]@krishna__web3 stated $PAPER issuance fell from 100 to 36.7 tokens per $1 lost, that the $5M LP cliff shifts staking rewards, and that raising the cap to $10M moves the cliff rather than solving it.
[1]@solana_luke tried to open a small BTC short on 10-16, sat in the queue roughly 15 minutes, withdrew, and said traders leave when execution feels slow — giving Papertrade 'a few months' if unfixed.
[1]@bythegentleman stated $PAPER did $817.5B lifetime notional on ~$59M reported TVL at up to 1000x leverage, and said the comparison to Nasdaq volume is mostly meme fuel. Account-stated, unverified.
[1]@oodegen said the test is whether Papertrade sustains activity and USDC staker rewards after farming hype fades; @cyberspartanx dismissed 'rug' claims because $PAPER keeps being staked; @aaakasei described losses as pool liquidity, wins paid from the pool, and unpaid wins queued until future losses clear them.
[1][2][3]Other tracked posts riffed on the mechanism rather than reporting news: @solana_luke proposed a 'paperbank' built on Papertrade mechanics, @abhayait promoted a PaperMath earnings calculator, @sharkcryptottm said liquidity matters more than headline price in the pre-market, and @syedyousef16 asked when the $PAPER airdrop is.
[1][2][3][4]Angles
- Card on the farm decay: 100 → 36.7 $PAPER per $1 lost, and @muddyrc's $0.001085/token break-even at $150M FDV.
- Card on the unverified $1.28M launch arbitrage and Papertrade's tightening of open-interest caps.
- Card on execution: @solana_luke's 15-minute queue on a small BTC short as the first real churn signal.
- Card on the token design: 0 initial supply, losses mint, 94-95% staked, unpaid wins queued.
Formats in use
Risks
- Unverified: a $1.28M launch-day arbitrage exploit, repeatable per @louisdives — not confirmed by any official source in this set.
- No market data was provided, so no price, FDV or volume claim in these posts can be validated; all figures are account-stated.
- Farm economics are decaying by the posters' own accounts: @muddyrc says PAPER per dollar lost is dropping daily, @krishna__web3 notes issuance fell 100 → 36.7 per $1 lost.
- Execution risk is now a stated reason to leave: @solana_luke withdrew after a queue of roughly 15 minutes on a small BTC short.
- Coordinated content risk: multiple posts push farming calculators and 'efficient farm' guides, and @abhayait's PaperMath post is effectively a tool promo — treat as possible promotional activity.
- Nothing here is financial advice; no price prediction should be taken from these posts, including the $1B FDV and $150M break-even figures.
Observed content
Most-engaged posts
How to farm $PAPER in the most efficient way possible Papertrade applies a haircut to winning profits, then charges a 2% win fee So losing trades mint PAPER based on eligible dollars lost - not leveraged notional. One very common farming approach is opening equal long and shorOpen on X →
not sure @papertrade_xyz is a long term revenue engine yet if you're there to lose money and farm $PAPER, it works but i tried to open a small BTC short today and sat in the queue so long i just withdrew if i want to short bitcoin, i should be able to short bitcoin. not submitOpen on X →
trading the 1 tick chart is so fun and retarded but its cool though cause if i get liquidated i earn a stake on a future billion dollar company $PAPER https://t.co/Fy3GM6Hwr3Open on X →
With $1,000 margin you can currently farm ~1,215 $PAPER using a delta-neutral strategy at a cost of just $0.001085 per token At a $150M FDV you'd be roughly breaking even on your farming costs Factor in the additional rewards from staking $PAPER and imo farming is still worth iOpen on X →
$1B for $PAPER FDV is general consensus i haven’t farmed enough thenOpen on X →
So @papertrade_xyz got exploited on launch day? And the person exploiting it made a $1.28 million profit? Context if some of you don't know about Papertrade: Papertrade is the 1000x perp DEX on HyperEVM where you earn $PAPER when you lose. Every trade is priced off HyperliquiOpen on X →
Don’t show this to your friend who’s a gambler. TRADERS LOST $18.6M ON DAY ONE STAKERS GOT $12.57M OF IT papertrade went live on HyperEVM 1000x, no funding, you trade against the house pool first day they have $300B volume $13.89B liquidated $14.4B volume in the first 10 minOpen on X →
$PAPER Did $800B Of Volume On ~$59M Of TVL. That headline sounds absurd until you look at how the machine works. > $817.5B lifetime notional > ~$59M reported TVL > up to 1000x leverage The same collateral can get recycled through huge leveraged positions over and over again.Open on X →
History